BR #14: Bitcoin's 2024 Price Surprise

(2 minute read)

When you look at bitcoin's price history (see image below) you can clearly see:

• 4-year market cycles (due to bitcoin's fixed monetary policy)
• Price rises and peaks in 2013, 2017, 2021 (and most probably in 2025)
• Price bottoms in 2015, 2019, 2023

It is also easy to see that:

• Every price next jump is smaller than the previous one
• • 25,000% (from the price bottom to the peak)
  • 12,000%
  • 2,300%
• And every price drop is lower than the previous one
• • 87% (from the price peak to the bottom)
  • 84%
  • 77%

 Therefore, most people expect:

• the price jump in 2024/5 to be smaller...say 1,000% to ~$150,000
• the price drop in 2025/6 to be smaller...say 70% to ~$45,000

I think there will be a price surprise this time.

I find it more likely that we will see a price jump in 2024/5 bigger than in 2020/1 but smaller than in 2016/7.

Here is my short explanation of why:

1. Today bitcoin trades at ~$30,000
2. This price is the meeting point of buyers and sellers
3. ~27,000 bitcoins are mined every month
4. 27,000 BTC = $900M new supply enters the market every month
5. The fact that the price stays at ~$30k means there is ~$900M demand from buyers
6. In April 2024, the supply will halve decreasing the new monthly supply to ~$450M
7. If demand remains the same at ~$900M the price can go in only one direction - up

 What is even more interesting is on the public bitcoin blockchain we can track the behavior of coin holders.

I recorded my first video on the BitcoinReady YouTube channel to review the behavior of bitcoin holders in real time charts and onchain data.

No time to watch?

Here are the key takeaways:

• 2020 was the time when there were the most coins available for sale (highest liquid supply)
• This is likely a major reason why the 2020/1 price peak was smaller than expected
• Since then the amount of coins available for sale keeps decreasing due to long-term bitcoin accumulators (I show data in the video)
• The following three events create a supply/demand dynamic that can be extremely favorable for a positive price movement:
• • Continuously decreasing supply of liquid coins;
  • Decreasing supply of new coins after the halving in April 2020;
  • Increased demand by institutions led by the world's largest asset manager BlackRock, whose CEO said on TV "bitcoin is a digital gold".

Making predictions is hard, but one thing bitcoin taught me is to always be ready for surprises: both good and bad ones :)

See you next Saturday!

 P.S. Here are some bitcoin onramps where you can accumulate.