BR #10: The USSA in its final stage

(1 minute)

In early 2020, investor and entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan was one of the first to accurately predict the spread and impact of Covid19.

Now Balaji predicts another crisis: the fiat crisis.

He burned $1M to warn us governments will print trillions.

Balaji made a bet for $1M that bitcoin would reach $1M by May 2, 2023.

He lost the bet, but his real goal was not to win $1M.

It was instead to grow his personal brand and spread his warning that a huge geopolitical shift is happening NOW.

Here is a summary of his thesis:

• The world reached peak centralization in the 1950s with the USA and USSR.
• Each superpower had strong centralized control over media, resources, and violence.
• As the USSR declined, the USA became the global superpower with its global reserve currency, the strongest army, and the most productive workforce.
• In the 1990s, the USA was the indisputable global policeman. Any country abided its will.
• This trend started reversing in the early 2000s and today the USA is in clear decline in all three of its major aspects:
  • AI is challenging USA's economic supremacy.
  • China is challenging USA's military power.
  • China has overtake the USA as the main trading partner for most countries.
  • Bitcoin, gold, and CNY are challenging USD's monetary power.
• As a result, we now live in a multipolar world and countries are adapting in real time to this new reality.

Balaji makes a compelling comparison between the declining USSR and today's declining USA (or shall we say USSA?):

• Just like Stalin killed his most loyal communists, the US Central Bank has been killing its most loyal banks (which bought US government bonds only to be purpusefully devalued a year later).
• Just like USSR tried to mimic the USSA with market reforms, the USSA today is mimicking China with its speech censorship, social credit score systems, Central Bank Digital Currency, and other systems of control.
• At the end of the USSR all the factory stats were fake. At the end of the USSA all the financial stats are fake. Banks with top credit ratings go bust. Inflation is reported at 7%, when we all know it is more like 20%. Official government stats state employment is strong, while companies have been continuously laying off.
• We see the infinite USD printing. We know it is not sustainable, and yet the current system seems eternal at the same time. Just like USSR seemed eternal.

Finally, Balaji contends a major systemic fiat chaos/collapse is likely to happen pretty soon. He places his timing bets at:

• 10% for a crisis within months
• 70% for a crisis within years
• 19% for a crisis in decades
• 1% for a crisis in centuries

I fully share Balaji's expectation that major shifts are upon us. And I am preparing.

Like Balaji I am highly confident bitcoin holders will benefit a lot if/when that chaos happens. I prepare by:

• Accumulating bitcoin
• Strengthening my bitcoin custody setup
• And mooore stuff I may share over time

I really hope I am wrong and instead of fiat chaos, we can have a long, peaceful transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar world; from a fiat standard to a bitcoin standard...but like Balaji I see the chaotic development way more likely.

Feel free to share your thoughts on the topic.

Just hit "reply" and let me know.

See you next Saturday!